Stoke and Copeland By-election: Labours to lose?
Thursday 23rd February is the date for the two by
elections in Copeland and Stoke on Trent.
The Cumbrian seat of Copeland will be contested due to a resignation
from Jamie Reed, who has occupied the vacant seat since 2005. Stoke on Trent’s vacancy is due to Tristram
Hunt taking up a post with the Victoria and Albert museum, leaving a seat he
has occupied since 2010.
This blog will explore the issues that have arisen because
of this by-election, not least from that of the issues surrounding the Labour
Party.
Copeland
Andrew Gwyne, Labour MP for Denton (Manchester), was amongst
the plethora of Labour MPs who joined the campaign trail in Copeland. This week he reported that there is
widespread panic across the Labour Party going into the Copeland
by-election. This is not difficult to
see when you consider some statistics that would leave Labour rather
embarrassed should they lose:
- Labour has held this seat for over 80 years
Due to boundary changes in 1983, renaming it Copeland from
Whitehaven, it has only belonged to Labour and has become somewhat of a core
labour territory. The last conservative to be elected for this
seat was in 1924.
Losing a ‘safe seat’ here could be detrimental to Labour’s
claims of being a credible opposition.
- Sellafield power station is based here.
As Labour are ideologically pro-nuclear, having Sellafield
power station here should be something that should considerably work in Labour’s
favour. Jeremy Corbyn has historically
being opposed to nuclear power and has being active on a number of occasions.
Andy Barnes of the Financial Times visited Copeland recently
and the general opinion is that this has not changed. Despite having a U-turn publically, Corbyn
has not been convincing and could also prove to be detrimental to Labour’s
defence of this seat.
- The NHS is under turmoil in Cumbria
Recent developments in Copeland locality NHS services have
left the government facing tough questions on the future of it. It has been reported that constituents may
need to travel up to 1 hour to Carlisle for NHS services.
This includes, not least, maternal services for expecting
families. This should work in Labour’s
favour as a recent Theresa May visit was met with hostility at Mrs May avoiding
key questions about this.
Even with it being a Labour constituency where this is
happening, it should still be factor why Labour should not lose from this
position
Stoke on Trent
Financial Times political editor Sebastian Payne recently
visited Stoke on Trent and reported that Labour’s main threat comes from the UK
Independence Party. Their leader, Paul
Nuttall, is hoping to usurp the Labour seat of 67 years.
Some factors must be considered when the suggestion of a
viable UKIP resurgence is mentioned such as Stoke’s EU referendum result:
Votes cast: 117,680 (65.7%)Remain: 36,027
Leave: 81,563
Allied to this, Paul Nuttall’s campaign has attacked the
lack of changes that Labour has made to Stoke on Trent. Not least that of key industries, such as
Aynsley China, closing their doors to trade.
However, some research once again proves that Labour rather
embarrassed to lose this seat they have occupied since its formation in 1950:
- UKIP have a poor campaign record
History tells us that UKIP do not have an exemplary record
of winning seats. This is largely due to
their campaigning techniques, which are far inferior to that of the Labour
Party machine. This was evident in the Rotherham
Council by-elections when they lost second place to Lib Dems. This should have been a more successful seat
considering how Rotherham voted in the EU referendum.
- Labour have a 5000+ majority
This will be difficult to overcome. The 67 years and 5000+ majority means that
UKIP have a lot of work to do in order to convince a key demographic of voters
that their votes would be better suited to UKIP. I hereby refer you back to point I. again.
- Paul Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims
This was a moment that UKIP could have very well done
without. Retracting a statement on
having a friend he lost in Hillsborough may well be something that may have
sealed Paul Nuttall’s fate. His absence
in the recent hustings will also be noticed amongst the people of Stoke and
could be the difference on the night.
So there we have it.
A labour win for both should be on the cards and Jeremy Corbyn lives to
fight another day.
On the other hand, how much are you prepared to put on that…?
